Economy & Market

History

Observation:
*  Recession not declared by NBER until months after-the-fact (6+ for start, 18+ for end)
*  Average 18-month lead time from inversion to recession.
*  Last inversions were Jan 06 & Jul 06.
*  Bear market usually by-or-before recession.
Seasonal market weakness from May - Oct.

 

Projection:
*  Based on 18 mo. average, recession due between Jul 07 & Jan 08.
*  Bear market starts by-or-during Fall 07 (Oct/Nov/Dec).

Yield Curve, Recession, Industrial & Transport Indicies, Bull & Bear Markets Market Manipulation:  Working Group (1988)  Visible Hand (2005)  Working Overtime (2007)  Seeking Alpha (2008)

Earnings Analysis

Current & Historical
WSJ S&P:  Current  Snapshot  
DJ S&P:  Historical
Schiller Data - Market Schiller Data - Housing

An investor who will study values and market conditions, and then exercise enough patience for six men will likely make money in stocks.  -- Charles H. Dow

The philosophy of Charles Dow always gave first consideration to values, then to economic conditions and third to the action of both the Industrial and Rail Averages.   When the low point of a bear market is reached, values will be the first indication of a change in trend.  -- E. George Schaefer, June 18. 1949

 

TREND:  Market vs. Dow Theory

Analysis of Industrials & Transports
Bear (-16%) & Bull (+19%) Markets Dow Theory Signals

TREND:  Moving Average

S&P 500
Long-Term, 1950+ Mid-Term, 1990+  (Short-Term, StockCharts.com or Yahoo Finance)

TREND:  Moving Average, Dow Theory & Bull/Bear (Market Type)

S&P 500
1950+ 1980+

TREND:  Rate of Change

Change in CPI adjusted S&P 500 n/a

Historical Reference

DJI 100 Years (1900 - 2004)
Bull & Bear Periods P/E Ratios

Correlation

Visual Composite
Monthly Weekly

 

Weekly R^2, Indices
Total History Rolling 10 Year

MISC

 
Volume, NYSE

Gold

"The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution.  I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin.  If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered" -- Thomas Jefferson.

10 Market Rules to Remember -- Robert Farrell

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time

2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction

3. There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent

4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways

5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names

8. Bear markets have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen

10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets