Economy & Market
History | |
Observation:
Projection: |
|
Yield Curve, Recession, Industrial & Transport Indicies, Bull & Bear Markets | Market Manipulation: Working Group (1988) Visible Hand (2005) Working Overtime (2007) Seeking Alpha (2008) |
Earnings Analysis
Current & Historical | |
WSJ | S&P: Current Snapshot |
DJ | S&P: Historical |
Schiller Data - Market | Schiller Data - Housing |
An investor who will study values and market conditions, and then exercise enough patience for six men will likely make money in stocks. -- Charles H. Dow The philosophy of Charles Dow always gave first consideration to values, then to economic conditions and third to the action of both the Industrial and Rail Averages. When the low point of a bear market is reached, values will be the first indication of a change in trend. -- E. George Schaefer, June 18. 1949 |
TREND: Market vs. Dow Theory
Analysis of Industrials & Transports | |
Bear (-16%) & Bull (+19%) Markets | Dow Theory Signals |
TREND: Moving Average
S&P 500 | |
Long-Term, 1950+ | Mid-Term, 1990+ (Short-Term, StockCharts.com or Yahoo Finance) |
TREND: Moving Average, Dow Theory & Bull/Bear (Market Type)
S&P 500 | |
1950+ | 1980+ |
TREND: Rate of Change
Change in CPI adjusted S&P 500 | n/a |
Historical Reference
DJI 100 Years (1900 - 2004) | |
Bull & Bear Periods | P/E Ratios |
Correlation
Visual Composite | |
Monthly | Weekly |
Weekly R^2, Indices | |
Total History | Rolling 10 Year |
MISC
10 Market Rules to Remember -- Robert Farrell
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
3. There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
8. Bear markets have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets